duck conf 2026, project estimation, project management, Thomas Luquet, Mytholand, estimation techniques, agile methodology, project scaling, business efficiency ## Introduction In the rapidly evolving world of project management, precision is often seen as a virtue. However, during the recent Duck Conf 2026, Thomas Luquet challenged this notion by presenting a compelling argument against the inefficiency of overly precise project estimations at scale. His thought-provoking talk, 'Estimating Projects at Scale: Welcome to Mytholand,' revealed how striving for accuracy can lead teams astray and provided actionable guidelines for more effective project estimation. This article delves into the key insights from Thomas Luquet's presentation, exploring how organizations can embrace a more pragmatic approach to estimating projects. ## The Myth of Precision in Project Estimation ### Why Precision Can Be Misleading In many organizations, the belief that precise estimations lead to successful projects is deeply ingrained. However, Luquet's argument posits that this myth often results in unrealistic expectations and heightened pressure on teams. When project managers demand accuracy to the last detail, they inadvertently create an environment where teams feel compelled to overpromise and underdeliver. This tension can lead to stress, burnout, and ultimately project failure. ### The Absurdity of Over-Precision Luquet illustrated the absurdity of this approach by presenting scenarios where over-precision became counterproductive. For instance, he shared anecdotes of teams that spent excessive time refining estimations down to the hour, only to find that unforeseen variables derailed their plans shortly after the project commenced. The result? Wasted time and resources, with teams feeling disheartened by their inability to meet the original estimates. ## Embracing Realistic Estimation Techniques ### The Need for Flexibility To counter the pitfalls of over-precision, Luquet emphasized the importance of flexibility in project estimation. Instead of rigid timelines and budgets, organizations should consider adopting a more iterative approach that embraces change. This aligns with agile methodologies, where teams can adapt their plans based on new information and changing circumstances. By allowing for adjustments, teams can maintain momentum and deliver value even in the face of uncertainty. ### Utilizing Historical Data One of the most effective strategies Luquet recommended was leveraging historical data from past projects. By analyzing previous performance, teams can gain insights into realistic timelines and potential challenges. This data-driven approach not only enhances the accuracy of estimations but also builds confidence among team members and stakeholders. When estimates are rooted in actual performance, they carry more weight than arbitrary figures. ### Collaborative Estimation Another key aspect of Luquet’s guidelines is the importance of collaboration during the estimation process. Involving team members from various disciplines encourages diverse perspectives, leading to more comprehensive estimations. Collaborative estimation techniques, such as planning poker, allow team members to share their insights and reach a consensus on timelines and tasks. This collective effort not only improves accuracy but also fosters a sense of ownership among team members. ## Navigating the Complexities of Scaling Projects ### The Challenges of Scaling As organizations grow, so do the complexities of managing projects at scale. Luquet highlighted that traditional estimation techniques often falter in larger contexts. The more extensive the project, the more variables come into play, making precise estimations increasingly challenging. In these situations, it's vital to adopt a mindset that prioritizes adaptability over rigidity. ### Establishing Guidelines for Scaling To navigate the complexities of scaling projects, Luquet proposed a set of guidelines that can help teams remain grounded in reality. These include: 1. **Set Range Estimates**: Instead of providing a single figure, offer a range that accounts for uncertainties. This approach signals to stakeholders that variability is expected and encourages open communication about potential risks. 2. **Regularly Revisit Estimates**: Estimations should not be a one-time occurrence. Regularly revisiting and updating estimates based on new information will help teams stay aligned with project realities. 3. **Prioritize Outcomes Over Outputs**: Shift the focus from completing tasks on time to delivering value. This mindset encourages teams to prioritize user needs and adapt their plans to achieve desired outcomes. ## Conclusion Thomas Luquet's presentation at Duck Conf 2026 serves as a crucial reminder that in the realm of project management, precision does not always equate to success. By embracing a more flexible and realistic approach to project estimation, organizations can navigate the complexities of scaling projects while fostering a healthier work environment for their teams. The guidelines shared during the conference provide valuable insights for project managers seeking to improve their estimation techniques and drive business efficiency. As we move forward in an increasingly uncertain world, the ability to adapt and respond to change will be a hallmark of successful project management. Welcome to Mytholand, where the focus shifts from mythical precision to pragmatic reality! Source: https://blog.octo.com/duck-conf-2026-cr-estimation-des-projets-a-l'echelle--bienvenue-a-mytholand-!